| PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN-KAZAKH COOPERATION 
TIMUR POLJANNIKOV,
Political scientist, State University-Higher School of Economics, Moscow Eurasian Home: “In which areas of economic cooperation with Russia is Kazakhstan interested above all?”
The priorities of the Russian-Kazakh cooperation have remained unchanged for many years. Firstly, it is cooperation in the energy sphere. Kazakhstan, like Russia, is a “petro-state”. More than 80% of the Kazakh oil and gas is exported through Russia. So, our interdependency in this sphere is absolutely evident. Secondly, of all the CIS countries Kazakhstan and Russia’s economies are in many respects the closest to the “civilized market”. This factor along with the “cultural factor” provides high compatibility of the two nations in the investment sphere among the others. Thirdly, in the foreseeable future the partnership in the military-industrial sphere will remain important. This includes the maintenance of the Baykonur complex, the GLONASS navigation satellite system and the development of uranium deposits. By the way, many analysts consider the agreement on the development of the joint nuclear centre on the uranium enrichment to be the “only positive result” of the recent Putin-Nazarbayev meeting (March 19, 2007).
Eurasian Home: “What obstacles hamper the two countries’ economic integration? What aspects of Russia’s policy in the former Soviet Union can discourage Kazakhstan?”
It should be noted that all the CIS countries, not only Kazakhstan, are getting more and more alerted about the Kremlin. On the one hand, nobody is content, to put it mildly, with the “imperial manners” of the big Russian corporations close to the Kremlin (particularly, it concerns Gazprom). A great deal is spoken and written about it. In this connection one can remind of the fact that Kazakhstan politely turned down the proposal to make the Russian ruble the single currency of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC). On the other hand, everybody is concerned about the presidential election in Russia that may be accompanied by the revision of the geopolitical priorities. This is not discussed publicly but the tension exists.
In other words, the problem of the Russian-Kazakh relations can be formulated in the following way: discontent at the aggressiveness, even the peremptory manners of the Kremlin and the corporations close to it, plus the uncertainty about what turn things will take after 2008. Roughly speaking, it is still incomprehensible who will be the Russian authorities to come to an agreement with.
Eurasian Home: “Why has Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed creating the Eurasian Economic Union of States? Does it mean that he wishes to reform the Eurasian Economic Communityor that Kazakhstan regards that Organization as not very efficient?”
After the Ukrainian “orange revolution” many serious Kazakh experts gave up for lost the EAEC prospects. This opinion has gained ground following the recent crisis in the Russian-Belarus relations. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that Kazakhstan regards that Organization as virtually inefficient. In other words, the future of the economic relations between Kazakhstan and Russia is in bilateral cooperation.
March 28, 2007
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