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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD IN UKRAINE 
VITALY BALA,
Director of the Situations Modeling Agency, Kyiv I believe that President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych reached a relative compromise about the early parliamentary elections in Ukraine because they came to realize that saber-rattling and conflict escalation could only lead the country to a deadlock.
At this stage of the political crisis the opposing parties have failed to justify their positions. Common sense has prevailed.
At the same time, the elections date remains the main stumbling block for the working groups representing different political forces in the negotiations.
Of course, President Yushchenko, pro-presidential Our Ukraine bloc and, particularly, Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc are interested in holding the elections within the next two months. They are getting more popular now that they came to terms with the Premier.
The Party of Regions is interested in holding the elections in autumn. It will have time to explain the voters why the Party has decided to take part in the elections, although initially it was against the snap elections. Apart from that, the Cabinet headed by Viktor Yanukovych will have a chance to increase the social payments, which could help the Party of Regions get as much votes as possible in autumn.
As to the other coalition members, the Socialist Party has a lot of troubles. It may not get over the electoral threshold. It is said that the Socialist Party can participate in the elections together with the Party of Regions. It is not in the interests of Yanukovych’s Party because his Party had better avoid the allies that after the elections could participate in forming the coalition and the new government, thus blackmailing the Party of Regions.
The Communists would like the elections to be held in the near future. However, if they step up criticism of the government for its dependence on the oligarchs, even in autumn the Communist Party of Ukraine will get more votes than in the recent elections.
Internal differences on the election date are unlikely to result in disintegration of the coalition. This would be another telling argument in favor of the Parliament dissolution. The self-preservation instinct will keep them from embarking on such reckless schemes.
I think that the big business’ opinion has played a pivotal role in reaching the compromise. It is known that the political crisis made the big business’ assets cheaper by 10%. This is very much. The election costs will account for 1-2% of this amount. That’s why the Ukrainian businessmen are interested in the elections that would stabilize the situation in the country.
May 11, 2007
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Author’s opinion on other topics
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