| AUTHORITIES WIN ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA 
SAMVEL MARTIROSYAN,
Head of the Centre for Strategic Studies, Yerevan May 12 parliamentary elections in Armenia changed the political landscape in the country. The parties in power strengthened their positions in the parliament, while the opposition was sidelined. Virtually half of the seats in the National Assembly are occupied by the ruling Republican party (32.8 % - by proportional representation and 24 out of 41 seats on majoritarian districts). The “Prosperous Armenia” created by President Robert Kocharian and headed by oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan ranked second (14.7%). The second ruling party, Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutyun" ranked third (12.7%).
Only two opposition parties were elected to the Parliament: "Orinats Yerkir" (“The State of Justice”) Party and “Heritage”. All the other opposition parties, which had played a key role in the past years, were shunted away to political backwater.
At the same time, for this once, the USA, Europe and Russia expressed confidence in the government. For the first time in the history of independent Armenia the Western observers acknowledged that the elections met the international standards. It means that the radical opposition parties, which had explicitly hoped for a revolution, lost the West’s support. All of the interested states regard Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan as more acceptable figures than the opposition leaders who would like the authorities to be overthrown.
These unexpected developments have had an effect – the opposition failed to gather significant popular support the next day after the elections. This way, the radical forces are unlikely to take serious measures.
At the same time, the West and Russia’s good attitude to the government points to the fact that all the parties found themselves in the balance of power. The main struggle for Armenia will get started at the beginning of the next year, in the run up to the presidential elections.
Then Kocharian will have to swim between two waters – to promote his successor and to maintain relations with Russia and the West. It is evident that expressing its attitude towards the elections the West indicates what policy Yerevan is to pursue.
For the time being Yerevan tries to follow the policy of “complementarism”. Its relations with Russia and the West are balanced enough. However, in the near future, it must be clear which external force will prevail. Kocharian is unlikely to resort to the same tricks, as he does now, with stable political situation in the country.
May 16, 2007
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