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UKRAINIAN POLITICAL PARTIES IN THE RUN UP TO THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

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SERGEI GOVORUKHA,
Director General of the Windmills Consult Company, Kyiv

Eurasian Home: “What is the alignment of political forces before the parliamentary election? Has any of the key political parties or blocs recently become more or less popular?”

During the election campaign the main political parties and blocs’ ratings were quite static. The Party of Regions, Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense have been the most popular from the start of the campaign. There were no big surprises, with the initial ratings being slightly reinforced. The reason for this is the stable political preferences of the Ukrainian electorate as well as low mobility of the electors with no clear preferences.

Eurasian Home: “What are the prospects of the future coalition’s formation following the elections in the light of the current deterioration of the relations between Viktor Yanukovych’s cabinet and President Viktor Yushchenko?”

Deterioration of relations is a permanent factor in the Ukrainian policy. However, this rarely enough leads to serious changes. The uncertainty about the coalition is great. All the three political forces are in disagreement, so they are unlikely to form a harmonious coalition. Most probably, the coalition formation will come to be “a marriage of convenience”. The most unlikely scenario is Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions coalition. The Party of Regions and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense coalition and Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense coalition have a better chance of being formed.

Eurasian Home: “Will there be attempts to revise the election results, to hold reelection, or amend the Constitution with a view of strengthening the presidential power?”

Revision of the election results and repeated elections are unlikely to take place. The election campaigns have been conducted for too long and the citizens are tired of it. Neither of the major political forces will profit from this initiative.

The political reform is likely to be revised. There are fewer and fewer advocates of this reform and neither Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense nor Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, nor the Party of Regions are happy with it. Each of those political forces has ambitions strong enough to seek for the widest possible powers. All the political forces would like to revise the law on presidential authorities with the view of winning the presidential elections and concentrating in their hands the president’s powers rather than depend on the intricacies of the parliamentary coalition formation. That’s why the new political reform can come to be the compromise between the major political actors. 

September 24, 2007




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