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EARLY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS

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DMITRY VYDRIN,
Director of the European Institute for Integration and Development, Kyiv

On the whole, the exit polls confirm the forecasts. But it came almost as a surprise that Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc took so many votes. Although, some analysts, including myself, had predicted that the Bloc’s results would be unexpected.

The Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc is successful because a lot of parties, including the Party of Free Democrats of which I am a member, did not understand the campaign nature. The campaign was based rather on images than on substance. Those, who tried to follow the logic of the election campaign, lost time and pace. None of the participants, except Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, created Ukraine’s striking and vivid images.

Yuliya Tymoshenko managed to personify Lesya Ukrainka as well as Evita Peron. So, she deserved her victory. She created a failsafe image that could only be outmatched, but everybody failed to do it.

Yuliya Tymoshenko will become Prime Minister. But if she stays Prime Minister until the 2009 presidential election, there will be no chance for her to be elected President. I believe that having political intuition Yuliya Tymoshenko will be Prime Minister for 8 or 9 months and then go over to the opposition. Such a strategy will make her President in 2009. I predicted this scenario six months ago. The posts of the Prime Minister and President will be occupied by a political leader who presses towards this goal. And Yuliya Tymoshenko wishes that more than all the other politicians do.

As regards coalition formation in the Verkhovna Rada, Yuliya Tymoshenko cannot have key partners. Strictly speaking, she needs offside assistants, not partners. This means that the coalition with the participation of ByuT will only be formed, given that Yuliya Tymoshenko becomes its sole and omnipotent leader.

If to speak about privatization, this process became slower under Viktor Yanukovych’s premiership, and under Yuliya Tymoshenko it will stop. Yuliya Tymoshenko considers herself to be an experienced manager and does not want a great number of independent, big private companies. She will seek to integrate big companies with the state sector. Such a leader, as Yuliya Tymoshenko, does not need privatization.

October 1, 2007




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