| DOES NATO ENLARGEMENT POSE A THREAT TO RUSSIA? 
KONSTANTIN ZATULIN, ALEXANDER KONOVALOV, TATYANA PARKHALINA, OLES DONIY, LEONID KOZHARA, IVAN ZAETS, ANDREW KUCHINS,
Moscow – Kyiv – Washington RUSSIA
Konstantin ZATULIN, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on the CIS and Relations with Compatriots
It is up to decision-makers in Washington not here in Moscow to answer the question about the purposes of NATO enlargement. We are not NATO members, though we have our understanding of the reasons behind the enlargement. I think that NATO enlarges to move eastward, to secure Ukraine and Georgia as its members and to keep Russia out - to further divide the post-Soviet space.
In my opinion, this is done to help the current regimes in Georgia and Ukraine. As a matter of fact, they are not quite equal to their tasks at hand. At least, this year in Georgia we witnessed that. As regards Ukraine, it is constantly split politically. I believe that those who would like to become experienced politicians come out for Ukraine’s membership in NATO and hope that if Ukraine joins the Alliance it will be easier for them to overcome their political opponents including the Russian-speaking East and South of Ukraine where the Russian language is being excluded from public and social life.
It is entirely possible that not all NATO member states realize the objects pursued by the Georgian and Ukrainian authorities trying to return Abkhazia and South Ossetia through NATO membership. I believe that these reasons motivate the authorities in Georgia and Ukraine.
We would not like a war machinery – be it democratic or totalitarian – to be our neighboring country, particularly in those historical areas that used to be part of the common space and where we were going neither to construct defensive lines nor to prepare for defensive actions in peace time.
Ukraine posed a threat to Russia under the Crimean khans in the 16-17th or even in 18th centuries. As regards NATO, we have read a lot that this organization is democratic, which, however, did not prevent it in quite a few cases from making undemocratic decisions – punishing Yugoslavia and participation in military operations. We do not support those actions.
We do not want the organizations to which we do not belong to decide whether we are right or wrong, what to do with us and how to encourage or punish us. We are entitled to be concerned and to ask what will happen tomorrow.
In 2009 it will be ten years since we signed the Friendship Treaty with Ukraine. It should be extended or withdrawn from. Ukraine’s joining NATO and application for accession to NATO Membership Action Plan is a fragrant violation of Clause 6 of the Treaty. If the Treaty is violated blatantly, a greater number of the Russian officials will think that it should be withdrawn from. I am against our destroying the basis of friendship, partnership and cooperation between Russia and Ukraine by means of such rash actions.
Alexander KONOVALOV, President of the Institute for Strategic Assessments
The eastward enlargement of NATO ceased worrying me long ago. That will pose no military threat to us. For all that, Ukraine and Georgia are a special case. Their entry into the Alliance will tell on Russia’s security for different reasons.
As to Ukraine, the most dangerous thing is the following. Ukraine is drifting towards NATO too intensively under the influence of the Ukrainian authorities rather than of the popular will. This will lead to rupture of the relations between Russia and Ukraine in many spheres. A lot of people have relatives in Russia and Ukraine. Our two countries have vast ties, many of which have finer points. For example, this is the Treaty on the Russian Navy’s Presence in Sevastopol until 2017. According to NATO rules, it cannot accept the countries where the troops from the third countries are deployed.
There are a lot of similar examples. The CC-18 missiles, which have been adopted by Russia, were produced by the Yuzhmash plant. Under the Soviet rule former President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma was the plant’s director. The service group, which operates the missiles, still exists at the enterprise.
I am concerned about the fact that we do not synchronize those processes between NATO and Russia and between NATO and Ukraine. This is highly conducive to rapture of the relations between Russia and Ukraine. This is the major threat. Apart from that, as far as I remember, the Declaration of Independence of Ukraine proclaims this country’s neutral status.
Tatyana PARKHALINA, Director of the Center for European Security under the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences
It should be noted that in 1990s NATO enlargement was not initiated by the USA, France or Germany. It was initiated by Central and Eastern European countries that, after self-dissolution of Warsaw Treaty Organization, started negotiations with Washington. Soon the process acquired its own logic and dynamism.
But why do the Central and Eastern European countries seek to join NATO? For many of them it is a way to join the EU. Many countries took this as institutionalization of independence from Moscow. For many countries it was a way to return to Europe – not to geographical Europe but to Europe as a system of values.
Does this pose a threat to Russia? Our situation is unique. In the past the Western countries invaded Russia many times. But now I think that the South and East threaten us. There is nothing else left for Russia but to be a strategic partner of the Euro-Atlantic community.
Here Russia’s role is not significant. The EU and NATO admit that. I do not think that in the foreseeable future Russia will belong to those organizations. For the first time in the recent five years our relations with NATO are institutionalized. We have the Russia-NATO Council – a framework for profound cooperation in over 20 areas.
UKRAINE
Oles DONIY, Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc
First of all, joining an international organization is the state’s sovereign right. For Ukraine this is above all a domestic issue. If we speak about the defense alliances, this is a security issue.
We are surprised that such pressure is exerted on the country, particularly by some Russian government officials, about its foreign-policy choice. Unfortunately, the question is raised not in a friendly atmosphere, but with ultimatums, sometimes with threats.
It is hard to understand that. It seems that Russia wants to keep Ukraine and other former Soviet states under its political influence rather than to keep them out of NATO.
For us this is a domestic issue. Both political elites and the population will have a say in this discussion. I believe that we will make a clear choice and say what we have decided.
Leonid KOZHARA, Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on International Affairs, Party of Regions
I am convinced that Ukraine’s national interests are not shaped by the executive branch of government. Ukraine’s people articulate them. After that national interests are transformed into the will of the political parties that win the parliamentary elections and translate their will into the laws.
When the authorities ignore the fact that most Ukrainians are against joining NATO, that means that the authorities ignore Ukraine’s national interests. In my opinion, such decisions as joining NATO can only be adopted through national consensus.
In Ukraine there have always existed particularly hot political issues. NATO issue is in the programs of many parties. When the political struggle becomes more hard-fought due to election campaigns, the issue comes to the fore. Then we can see that NATO is getting less popular. And vice versa, when there is political stability in the country, the issue becomes less challenging and the Ukrainians’ attitude towards NATO is gradually getting even more positive.
Ivan ZAETS, Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc
Ukraine’s membership in NATO does not mean that Ukraine has turned its back on Russia. The point is that the globalization processes compel us to take the security organization in the Euro-Atlantic space in a different way. Previously the balance of forces should have been searched for between Europe and Russia, but currently this ideology does not work.
I believe that there is no direct military threat to Ukraine. But there is a threat of foreign challenges and influence. Russia also has to accept challenges: China’s boom, development of the Muslim fundamentalism and necessity to adopt the high technology that Europe possesses. So, Russia and Ukraine have no alternative but to be integrated into the European and Euro-Atlantic organizations.
Here the relations between Russia and Ukraine are based on competition, including in the economic sphere, rather than on threats. We give NATO member countries the aircraft to bring cargoes to many countries. Russia does the same thing. In this sphere we are competitors. Ukraine was part of the Soviet military-industrial complex. And our exploratory work in the arms sphere resembles that of Russia’s military-industrial complex in a sense. Russia is also interested in being first to cooperate with NATO countries in this field. There are a lot of examples.
We are asking Russia whether it would like to be contiguous with the democratic countries or with the unstable vassals. I think that Russia is interested in bordering upon the democratic countries, in Ukraine’s joining NATO and in Ukraine’s making Russia a democratic country.
But Ukraine’s soon joining NATO is a mare’s nest. We mean NATO Membership Action Plan. We do not know how long it will take to prepare for that.
USA
Andrew KUCHINS, Leading Researcher and Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
NATO enlargement has played a positive role in modernization of the military sector as well as in the political reforms. NATO entry is the first step to join the European community.
Psychologically I understand Russia’s position on the NATO enlargement issue. But Russia’s position is quite incomprehensible in terms of real security threats. I do not think that Russia and NATO threaten each other. We should realize that the USSR and then Russia have bordered upon NATO since Norway joined it.
It seems strange that after the “cold war” the USA argues with Russia over the European security. I believe that there are no real threats between our countries.
The major problem is not NATO enlargement. The problem is differences between NATO and Russia. It also seems strange because we are addressing the problems on prevention of common threats. These are the threats of terrorism and radical Islam that exist in Afghanistan. These are the major problems for NATO and threats to Russia. We must focus on the issue of Afghanistan.
Some time or other, Russia will join NATO or, at least, it will be its partner. If to compare the level of cooperation between Russia and NATO with that between Russia and China, the level of cooperation with NATO and even with the USA is higher, which is of more use to Russia.
The material is based on the experts’ addresses to Russian News and Information Agency RIA Novosti during the Moscow-Washington-Kyiv television space bridge “Does NATO Enlargement Pose a Threat to Russia?” held on April 2, 2008.
April 7, 2008
|
