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WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE DEMOCRATIC “ORANGE” COALITION IN UKRAINE? 
DMITRY VYDRIN, Director of the European Institute for Integration and Development, Member of Praesidium of the Party of the Free Democrats, Kyiv The fact that two Verkhovna Rada legislators, Igor Rybakov (Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc) and Yuri Bout (Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense Bloc), have withdrawn from the democratic coalition casts doubt on its prospects. The withdrawal itself is of no importance. It is unclear why everybody has focused narrowly on the lawmakers' withdrawal and nobody has mentioned the reasons behind it.
The point is the two MPs do not want to be responsible for the corruption in Yuliya Tymoshenko's Cabinet and the coalition. Their position will influence the future of the government and the coalition.
The scenario, which was implemented by former head of the Presidential Secretariat Olexander Zinchenko, may take place again. After stepping down in 2005, Zinchenko made accusatory statements against top officials in the Ukrainian government.
Should the two MPs raise the corruption issue, speak at conferences and appear on television, this will lead to the Cabinet dismissal and, probably, early dissolution of the Parliament.
If they are forced to withhold the true reasons for their resignation, there will occur nothing but behind-the-scenes negotiations and, probably, coalition reformatting.
Although, for example, several criminal cases may be opened in the wake of the statements made by Rybakov. The accusations concern head of the Customs Service Valery Khoroshkovsky, other customs officers and the Cabinet. I want to stress that those statements have been made by the Member of Parliament. That means that the government should initiate the consideration of those issues and get Prosecutor General’s Office involved in the investigation.
I believe that the incriminations will have further development. At the forthcoming session of the Parliament the MPs will ask Igor Rybakov and Yuri Bout to explain why they withdrew the coalition. Their addresses will make it possible to forecast the future development – whether the government will be dismissed or behind-the-scenes agreements will be achieved.
June 9, 2008
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Author’s opinion on other topics
THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN UKRAINE |
19 January 2010 |
In the January 17 elections Yuliya Tymoshenko made three system mistakes. Firstly, as I have already said, the exit poll with the results in the interests of Yuliya Tymoshenko was made. She cannot use this technology in the second round, as no one would believe “her” sociologists. |
TWO INTRIGUES OF UKRAINE'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN |
25 December 2009 |
The presidential election campaign in Ukraine has two main intrigues, if anything extraordinary does not happen in the New Year and Christmas holidays. The first one is a very wide gap between approval ratings of the leaders of the presidential race, Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko. |
THE GAS CRISIS IMPACT ON UKRAINE’S POLITICS |
19 January 2009 |
Russia-Ukraine gas dispute has had several consequences for the Ukrainian politics. As regards tactics, it led to polarization of views in the Ukrainian political establishment and in the Parliament. |
POLITICAL SITUATION IN UKRAINE |
26 May 2006 |
Yuliya Tymoshenko is likely to become prime-minister, with members of her bloc taking 50% of the seats in the Cabinet. |
POLITICAL CRISIS IN UKRAINE |
14 September 2005 |
There are several scenarios of developments after Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Cabinet resignation. Now it is difficult to estimate which of them will be implemented. |
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