| LUKASHENKA TRIES TO MAKE A CLEAR CHOICE 
PAVEL USOV,
Expert of the Regional Information and Analytical Center “Politon”, Minsk The main question, which has arisen before the Belarusian political elite, is with whom they should build relationships, with the East or with the West. The current political situation indicates that Belarus has reached a geopolitical impasse. And President Aliaksandr Lukashenka is partially guilty of that.
The relations between Belarus and the Western countries are quite bad because of the odious regime established by President Lukashenka in Belarus rather than because of the pro-Russian foreign policy. In addition, for the last several years, the contradictions between Belarus and Russia have been aggravated sharply.
On the one hand, Belarus seeks to freeze all the integration projects with Russia. On the other hand, Minsk continues to insist that Russia should supply the energy resources to Belarus at a low price. This caused several major political and energy conflicts between Moscow and Minsk in 2005-2007, which the Belarusian official mass media called “energy wars” aimed at undermining Belarus' sovereignty and absorbing the country into the Russian Federation.
The sovereignty of Belarus is a guarantee of immunity incontestability of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s authority. Under the circumstances, Lukashenka, who was the main opponent of Belarusian national identity building, has become its advocate. Currently, the main slogan of the regime is “For Belarus”, which was highly improbable several years ago. The interconnection between Belarus’ sovereignty and Lukashenka’s regime security is the main reason for the foreign-policy fluctuations.
After the relations between Belarus and Russia had worsened, Minsk tried to improve its relations with the Western countries. But at present Belarus’ relations with the EU and the USA are in crisis. The main condition for the improvement of the relations with the West is the change of Belarus’ home policy and the regime democratization, which also threatens Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s leadership. The Belarusian President expects that the West will be lighter on his regime if it distances itself from Russia. This stance has been formed by the "double standards" policy followed by the USA and the EU towards the undemocratic regimes that are on unfriendly terms with their enemies.
Apparently, that’s why Lukashenka was silent for such a long time about the armed conflict in South Ossetia. Lukashenka might be waiting for America and Europe’s positive reaction. At that time former presidential candidate Aliaksandr Kazulin was set free. After the 2006 elections he was arrested and convicted for five years. Earlier other political prisoners had been discharged. Apart from that, Lukashenka said more than once that the forthcoming elections to the National Assembly of the Republic of Belarus, scheduled for September 28, 2008, must be held in the most democratic possible way.
The readiness of the Belarusian authorities to make concessions to the West should warn Moscow that if it does not change its policy towards Minsk, it can lose “the last ally”. Given the current situation, it takes the West or the East to give only one positive or negative sign for Belarus’ positions to become quite clear. The lack of the Western reaction to the Belarusian President’s silence about the Russian-Georgian armed conflict and Russia’s negative response to that forced Lukashenka to voice his attitude to the events in South Ossetia. This position was expressed in a more colorful manner during the meeting between Belarusian leader and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the Russian city of Sochi. This way, one can say that Russia understood Minsk correctly and quickly. There is no telling how this will affect Moscow's energy policy pursued towards Belarus. At the present time the West is supposed to have its say. But to all appearances, the response of the Western countries will be negative. The Belarusian authorities can be praised by the Western rivals of Russia only if they allow the oppositionists to be elected to the Belarusian Parliament, which is virtually impossible today. However, as tension between the West and Russia increases, Belarus can become a tasty geopolitical "morsel". In this game the human rights and democracy will not be taken into consideration. Does Lukashenka realize it? I think that he does.
There is also a question whether the West will be able to gamble with the Belarusian regime. Until now the West did that unsuccessfully.
At the same time, it takes Russia only to reduce the gas prices for Belarus or give it a permanent stabilization credit for the relations with Lukashenka to be improved.
September 1, 2008
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