MICHAEL AVERKO,
a New York based independent foreign policy analyst

SYRIA, IRAN, ISRAEL AND THE RUSSO-AMERICAN RELATIONSHIP

The matter of "rogue states" is a periodic topic of discussion used by critics of Russia to limit American goodwill towards Moscow. Russia, Syria and Iran are three very different countries having good relations among themselves. This should in no way serve to limit Russia's relations with Israel and the U.S.

Putting aside Israel and the U.S. for the moment, the Syrian and Iranian governments have in recent history feared the respective geo-strategic prowess of Turkey and Iraq. This is perfectly understandable. In that part of the world, Turkey is seen by some as a militarily threatening goliath with an imperialist past. Iraq did attack Iran back in 1980 and the Saddam regime wasn't on the best of terms with Syria. While having shared geo-strategic concerns, the Iranian-Syrian interaction has its limits. Predominately non-Arab Shia Iran remains a religious state as opposed to the secular variant found in the mostly Sunni Arab inhabited Syria.

The Russian relationship with Syria is no doubt part of a Cold War holdover when Damascus was for many years the Soviet Union's most popular Arab state. Soviet educated foreign policy elites from that era remain in good standing and with that comes a certain degree of pro-Arab sentiment.

Iran is a more recent phenomena. Under the Shah, Tehran was on the American side during the Cold War. The first few years of the Khomeini led revolution in Iran saw that country becoming even more anti-Soviet. The Cold War's end and a more reformist Iranian government paved the way for better relations between Moscow and Tehran.

Much has been made out of Russian assistance to Iran's nuclear program. It's actually good that Moscow is overseeing this project. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle. By hook or by crook, Iran will acquire this capability. It's better to have Russia involved as opposed to Iran undertaking a nuclear program in an underground manner, as in no involvement from a major country.

There's actually a peaceful justification for Iran's program. Cheaply produced nuclear energy for domestic use will enable Tehran to sell more fossil fuel abroad, instead of having to allocate some of it for internal consumption.

Russia's positive relationship with Iran is due largely to the moderate side of the Islamic Republic. Iran hasn't supported the Chechen separatists unlike some other Muslim entities have. Iran has tended to favor predominately Christian Armenia over predominately Muslim and Turkish friendly Azerbaijan (something which is also agreeable with many Russian foreign policy elites). The historic Iranian-Turkish and Armenian-Turkish rivalries are the influencing factor for good Armenian-Iranian relations.

Russia's otherwise good relationship with Israel is limited because of Israeli fixations with Syria and Iran. In turn, the influential Israeli lobby on Capitol Hill has very strong neo-conservative and neo-liberal elements, which are already hostile towards Russia for other reasons (among them being the neo-conservative and neo-liberal money ties with anti-Putin Russian oligarchs). These forces gloss over the emphasis Russia puts in maintaining and enhancing good relations with Israel. Note how the Russian government funded worldwide English language television network (Russia Today) has a Jerusalem office to go along with its four other offices in Cairo, Paris, London and Washington.

Syria is likely the Arab country most loathed by Israelis (this is in agreement with some Israeli relations of mine). With this animosity comes a good deal of propaganda that misses several points. Namely, the post Cold War Syrian military is absolutely no match for Israel's tremendous might and the Assad administration is the best of possible political scenarios. When the Muslim Brotherhood was crushed in Hama back in 1982, the utilization of human rights as a propaganda tool was employed. This is akin to the then prevailing attitude that the Afghan rebels were a better choice over the pro-Soviet Afghans. Israel would definitely not be more secure with a Muslim Brotherhood type of regime in Syria.

At a Russia Profile Panel of Experts discussion, Kansas State political science professor Dale Herspring noted how Russia stridently denounced a provocative anti-Israeli statement made by the Iranian president. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the one making the statement. In his previous post as Russia's UN ambassador in New York, Lavrov established a reputation for sincerely and forcefully speaking his mind in the best interests of Russia. His response to the anti-Israeli comment shows how Russia serves as a positive role for moderation.