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KAZAKHSTAN JOINING THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN PROJECT 
ASKAR NURSHA,
Head of the Department of Foreign Policy Studies at the Kazakh Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan, Almaty On June 16, 2006 Kazakhstan signed the intergovernmental agreement with Azerbaijan and joined the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Project. This agreement meant to be signed in May 2005 when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev visited Baku. However, Azerbaijan and the USA did not get solid guarantees from Kazakhstan to export the needed oil volume through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Since then the pressure on Kazakhstan has been increasing, not surprisingly, though, taking into account that the project’s future largely depends on the Kazakh oil supplies. Many oil experts believe that the present oil production in Azerbaijan is too small to fully load the oil-pipeline.
Kazakhstan’s joining the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil-pipeline also pursues forward-looking political objectives. This project’s implementation is seen as one of the key priorities of the U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia and in the Caucasus. From that region the energy raw materials are planned to be delivered around territories of Russia and Iran, the U.S. officials report openly about that. The purpose is to deprive the above-mentioned countries of the opportunity to use their transit potential and transportation infrastructure for strengthening their pressure on the new independent states in Central Asian and the Caucasus and to involve them in the pro-Western institutions and mechanisms of the energy cooperation. Practically, the implementation of the oil-pipeline construction project a) facilitates the diversification of the Kazakh and Azerbaijani energy resources exports; b) improves the energy security of the trans-Caucasian countries; c) will re-focus the Azerbaijani oil from the Baku-Novorossiysk route to the Turkish direction; d) will turn pro-NATO Turkey into a strategic partner of the countries of South Caucasus and Central Asia and link the countries participating in the project with political and economic ties; e) will provide the USA and the other Western countries with an additional source of energy and a leverage over the world energy market. The project of construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum gas pipeline pursues the same objectives. It is expected to transport natural gas produced in Shakhdeniz deposit in Azerbaijan with its further adherence to the Turkmen gas project.
When Russia dominated in Central Asia in the nineties of the 20th century and the civil war took place in Afghanistan, the region was closed for the Western countries and they originally regarded the trans-Caucasian republics, above all Azerbaijan, as a strong point for their further intervention into Central Asia (according to Zbignev Bzhezinsky, it was “a cork for a vessel that contained the wealth of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia”). South Caucasus region upholds the above-mentioned function today and even more: Russia’s policy in North Caucasus, establishing the pro-American regime of Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia following the “color revolution” and the fact that South Caucasus countries pursue a policy of integration into the Euro-Atlantic structures create a pretext for strengthening of the Western influence in the Northern direction and in the Caspian region where before the access for them was denied.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of the 21st century Central Asia has witnessed the noticeable changes that can in a large measure correct the strategy of implementing the American plans in the region. After September 11, 2001, as a result of the anti-terrorist campaign conducted by the international coalition forces, which were headed by the USA, in Afghanistan the Talibs were wiped out and the U.S. “friendly” government came to power. Apart from the U.S. military contingent the NATO units were sent to Afghanistan. What’s more, the USA came to have the military bases in a number of the Central Asian republics as a token of their support for the USA actions in Afghanistan. In spite of the facts that in 2005 the American base in Uzbekistan was closed and lately the American base in Kyrgyzstan has encountered certain difficulties, the U.S. military presence is an extremely important factor of the regional politics and the modern history of Central Asia. As a result, the USA has received the new “windows of opportunities” so that it could consolidate its grip on the region after pursuing its policy in the Afghan-Pakistani direction, which was reflected in the U.S. putting forward the political and economic initiative to create “the Great Central Asia”.
Thus, there is no solely Russia’s domination in the region any more, although its influence on the political processes continues to be crucial. To counterbalance the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project and the U.S. plans, in order to keep the Central Asian countries under its influence, Russia is ready to give the Caspian states very attractive exports opportunities, and the critics say that in some cases Russia tries to obtain competitive advantages while protecting the region’s political regimes politically.
It came as an unpleasant surprise to the USA that China’s influence in Central Asia became stronger and stronger, and China acts carefully. On December 15, 2005 in Kazakhstan the Kazakh-Chinese oil-pipeline Atasu-Alashankou was put into operation, through which oil came to China on May 26, 2006. Apart from that China managed to conclude the agreement on transportation of the Turkmen gas to China, which can threaten the stability of the natural gas supplies to Europe. In future China’s active penetration into the energy sector of the Central Asian countries can strengthen China’s energy security, while weakening the U.S. and Russia’s influence on the Central Asian republics.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) becomes more and more powerful, and due to uniting Russia and China’s political forces, the organization starts to play a complicated diplomatic game to drive the USA out of the region. The tactics approved at the SCO summit, on July 5, 2005, in Astana, comes to be useful, and as a result, the tension in the triangle Russia-China-USA has become more severe. During the SCO last summit in Shanghai on June 15, the SCO member states adopted the declaration where they clearly formulated that the organization had its own area of responsibility where it was going to maintain the stability and law and order single-handedly.
Under such initial conditions, with putting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil-pipeline into operation, the competition between the exports routes and their lobbyists may be aggravated. Kazakhstan will have to show its ability to observe the balance of the geopolitical forces during the implementation of its national interests. The main items of the next negotiations agenda may appear to be installing the trans-Caspian oil and gas pipeline at the Caspian Sea bottom between its western and eastern shores, and the EU is likely to join it along with Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and the USA.
June 21, 2006
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