JOHN MARONE, KYIV
THE VOTES AFTER THE VOTE
Ukraine held general elections on September 30, but power sharing in the country remains to be decided in subsequent voting devoid of public participation and full of backroom intrigue.
For a second time in a row, Ukraine has pulled off an internationally accepted demonstration of the people's will, with rank and file citizens putting an end to a crippling stand off between their two highest executive leaders.
Now the battle between Orange President Viktor Yushchenko and Blue Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has again taken a back seat to infighting among Orange parties tasked with forming the parliament's next coalition.
Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, who helped Yushchenko withstand Yanukovych's fraud-filled bid for the presidency during the country's 2004 Orange Revolution, only to be fired by Yushchenko as his first premier in 2005, is ready to return to head the government in recognition of her bloc's stunning performance on September 30.
But the toughest voting is still ahead for Ms. Yulia, a fiery populist whose ratings have steadily increased over the years in direct relation to the fear of her opponents and her ‘allies’.
Tymoshenko's BYuT bloc signed a coalition agreement with President Yushchenko's Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense [OUPSD] bloc last week.
Orange supporters who had helplessly watched Viktor Yanukovych return as premier following the 2006 parliamentary elections due to Orange infighting were relieved.
This time, the president’s party promised to bloc with BYuT; last time, Mr. Yushchenko and company were accused of offering a coalition deal to Yanukovych’s Regions faction.
This time, the Orange parties don’t need the Socialists or a third faction to form a coalition; last time, it was the Socialists who defected to the Regions’ coalition effort.
Yet despite calls from every Western leader and his brother for the prompt formation of a Ukrainian government, the process has stalled.
U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer summed it up best during a statement made on October 16 in Washington.
"Many, many months over the past few years have been spent on elections, campaigning and government formation. It is time to get down to business and focus on governing. It is time to get on with it."
The Orange Revolution brought hope that Ukraine would move closer to Europe, introducing liberal reforms, but Yushchenko’s lack of leadership first, in 2005, allowed the Orange coalition to fall apart and then, in 2006, the enemy Blue camp to usurp presidential authority.
And just like last year, the obstacles to getting the country back on track, to unblocking reform bills, appear to be coming from Yushchenko.
The head of the president’s Secretariat, Viktor Baloga, announced last week that the new coalition’s program is “a direct assault on the exclusive prerogatives of the president.”
Baloga meant a BYuT initiative to halt army conscription next year rather than in 2010, as envisioned by Yushchenko.
BYuT’s populist campaign promise, indeed, needs a lot of explaining, but surely this is no reason to hold up the formation of a government.
In addition, Yushchenko did a pretty good job of letting Yanukovych assault his presidential prerogatives leading up to the last election without the help of BYuT. Yanukovych fired Yushchenko’s pro-Western foreign minister and unilaterally put the brakes on NATO integration, while the president could only protest.
Opposition to the still unconfirmed Orange coalition has also come from the coalition members themselves – at least a few deputies who seem to be directed by Tymoshenko’s Orange enemies.
Lightweight parliamentary newcomer Vladislav Kaskiv announced last week that, “we have serious doubts about supporting the package of draft laws that have supposedly been agreed between BYuT and OUPSD.”
Considering that the Orange coalition has yet to be confirmed and holds only a three-deputy majority against a powerful and disciplined Regions in opposition, maybe Mr. Kaskiv should have kept his doubts out of the media.
Leading up to the vote to confirm Tymoshenko as premier will be a vote to reverse legislation passed under Yanukovych to limit Yushchenko’s presidential powers. It was Yushchenko who laid the groundwork for his own demise by approving controversial constitutional reforms in late 2004. Now, the president wants the ally he let down on at least two earlier occasions to give him back his power.
But the two Orange leaders apparently don’t trust each other, which is why all sorts of undemocratic tricks are in play, such as secret and package voting.
There is also the vote for the speaker position, which BYuT has promised to OUPSD. However, this may be little comfort to the president, as his party is increasingly filled with young professional politicians who realize the danger of again betraying Orange voters and thus are unlikely to stick too close to the president.
The September 30 elections demonstrated similar shifts in loyalty among Orange voters, twice as many of whom supported Tymoshenko over Yushchenko.
Unlike the president, BYuT and most OUPSD deputies are vowing daring reforms such as cleaning up Ukraine’s shady energy sector and finally introducing an Orange prosecutor-general.
The president’s middle-of-the-road approach looks wan and even frustrating by comparison.
The vote count after September 30 was slow enough, taking several days in some regions; and the coalition announcement has still to be finalized.
More recently, the country’s infamously corrupt courts have been running interference.
The Supreme Administrative Court is currently reviewing suits filed by mostly fringe parties that didn’t get past the three-percent barrier. Judicial review looks “democratic” enough on the outside, but anyone familiar with Ukraine’s courts can see through the delay tactic.
And this time, one cannot blame Yanukovych’s Regions party or their Communist allies for stifling democracy. They fought a more or less fair election campaign and look set to go into the opposition, where they will likely be no less dangerous.
Whatever its democratic shortcomings, Regions is disciplined and largely united, making their Orange opponents look hypocritical and divisive by comparison.
Considering the slim majority held by the Orange and the confirmation votes that they still have to overcome, Regions is expected to have a heyday ‘inducing’ their Orange opponents to break ranks.
The elections are over, and the Orange look set to take back full control of executive power in Ukraine. If they believe in even half of the democratic policy goals they advocated during the election campaign, it shouldn’t matter how Yushchenko and BYuT divide up the pie. If they don’t, they don’t deserve the presidency or the government.
John Marone, Kyiv Post Staff Journalist, Ukraine
October 22, 2007
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