MOLDOVA IS AT A DEADLOCK: ELECTIONS IN TRANSNISTRIA HAVE STRENGTHENED RUSSIA’S POSITIONS

The elections to the Supreme Council of Transnistria have shown once again that Moldova has no instruments to influence the political situation on the left bank of the Dniester river, except for the acknowledgement of the elections illegitimate.

The fact that the elections haven’t obtained the international recognition doesn’t embarrass the current authorities of Transnistria. The elections’ results show Chisinau’s inability to take under its control the situation in Transnistria. These elections can be viewed as Moldovan government’s political loss since the international observers haven’t revealed any violations of the elections.

The political race was run between two blocs; both political forces stood against Transnistria’s joining Moldova. The political parties in Transnistria prefer to be loyal to President Igor Smirnov. For 13 years Moldovan politicians have failed to promote any political force, which could come out in favor of a dialogue with Chisinau. Pro-Moldovan policy-makers who ran in the elections to the superior bodies of Transnistria usually came to grief since Moldova had no political mechanisms for resisting Smirnov’s propagandist policy.

That is why Moldova decided not to take part in this election. At the same time, it is necessary to acknowledge that there are no conditions in Transnistria to conduct democratic elections according to the international standards: there is no political opposition, and the local mass media are controlled by the Transnistrian government.

However, even if the elections were held after demilitarization of Transnistria (as it is required by Moldova and the OSCE), political forces loyal to Smirnov would win. For 13 years the leader of Transnistria has strengthened his positions while Moldova has lost control over the region.

The elections’ results prove that Russia has consolidated its positions in the region. Tiraspol seeks a more intense cooperation with Moscow and supports the Russian peacekeeping forces’ staying in Transnistria. The Russian authorities are expected to step up the pressure on Moldova through the economic sanctions.

The only thing Moldova can do is to seek support of the EU countries. Romania declared that it would support Moldova if Russia raised gas prices. It would be interesting to watch the negotiations between Chisinau and Gazprom on the prices for Russian gas supplied to Moldova. If to take into account that Ukraine has failed during the negotiations with Gazprom, Chisinau is unlikely to make Moscow change its mind. Though the Moldovan government makes statements that the rise of gas prices will not significantly influence the Moldovan economy, the new tariffs can result in negative economic consequences for the Moldovan citizens.

While pursuing a tough policy towards Russia without the EU’s support, Moldova has reached a deadlock. Chisinau realizes that its position in the relations with Russia should be softened, but it can be detrimental to its rapprochement with the European Union.

Moldova has to choose between the partnership with Russia and the policy of integration into the European Union. The former can lead to the legalization of the Russian Army in Moldova, and, as a consequence, to the closure of prospects for integration into the European Union. The latter can negatively influence upon the Moldovan-Russian relations. Considering the lack of prospects for Moldova’s entering into the European Union (though the Moldovan government denies that) and the current crisis of the Russian-Moldovan relations, we can say that Chisinau is closely confined.

Besides, Moldova can face an economic crisis as Russia is unlikely to make concessions, and the EU countries are not interested in deterioration of relations with Moscow.